I achieved a loss of £12.02 today but I am still at a loss to understand why. I wasn’t having a particularly favourable day but I expected to be, at the vey least, breaking even.
I nipped out to the local garage around 15:25 to get some munchies and when I returned I refreshed the BF balance to find it was about £14 less than I was expecting. So I checked my account in Betfair to find there was a loss of £10.51 on the 15:00 Newmarket, a race where I had a full green book of at least £2.30 shortly after it had gone in-play.It transpires that Rule Four came in to play over Tropical Paradise being withdrawn. The mystery to me is, according to my Bet Angel log (next picture), that I placed a back bet of £2 @ 50.0 on Tropical Storm some 38 seconds AFTER the race went in-play (15:07:48) and it was matched a couple of seconds later (15:08:26).
Despite individual horses showing red profits from time to time, this was the final back bet, the only one made in play, in a series of successful dutching attempts I made as the book was consistently under 100% in the few minutes before the race went off. I then went on to green up the excess profit to give me a fully green book.The next picture is my Betfair “Voided” list, this may help explain something, I don’t know!
Now, can anyone explain how the rule four works? I’ve tried to understand it but can’t seem to grasp exactly what happened in my case. Also, is it possible that a horse can be withdrawn after the start of a race or is this just some anomaly that occurs on occasions?Whatever, I need to understand what happened and whether it applies to Bookmaking in the same way as well or would the reverse happen and you make more profit? I’ve absolutely no idea.
I’ve “handcrafted” this spreadsheet to use both Dutching & Bookmaking in certain types of race and was planning to test it a bit more soon. On the race above I didn’t use it, but used the Dutching tab in Bet Angel.
I think Mrs TG is out tomorrow afternoon so I may well get some time to trade and if so I will post again tomorrow. If not then have a good weekends trading.
Cheers
Not sure about that one, Andy.
ReplyDeleteMight be worth giving betfair a ring.
Well, “Greg” at Betfair basically said that it is out of their control if a horse is withdrawn at such a late time and the market takes a while to re-adjust. So, I guess, it’s tough luck for those dutching and thank you very much for those bookmaking.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe it’s only bookmaking for me in these instances, that is when I can understand fully the implications of the rule four.
Now what would happen if this was a high street bookies?
Happens the other way around, 20:55 this evening would have worked in your favour. It is more favourable to dutch over all.
ReplyDeletea late withdrawal can destroy your profit when laying the field too. A horse above 40 odds, no rule 4 is applied, money gets returned to bettor and your green turns into a big red. All part of the fun, TG
ReplyDelete