Thursday 11 June 2009

Analytical Times

Quite often I find myself being too analytical and seem to miss opportunities when they present themselves. I’ve said many times before that I’m a cautious trader and I believe it is a mind over matter problem I have.

Many people have suggested the book “Trading in The Zone” so I guess it is a must to purchase and will get hold of it as soon as possible, I’m hoping it will help me overcome the ghosts that sit in my mind when trading.

So, let’s have a look at some analytical stuff…

This is a picture of the various graphs that are available and what happened whilst I was watching what was going on in the 15:35 Nottingham.

It’s things like this I need to understand. The WOM pressure (lower graph) was down for some time, as you can see from the picture. The 3 circled graph areas on the picture cover roughly the same time period for Eastern Warrior, and I would normally be tempted to back as a couple of indicators said to me this was the current best policy. Despite this the odds continued to rise early on, making me nervous and I didn’t make an entry this time. Unfortunately, whilst writing this I missed Candy Stripe’s refusal to go in the stalls and Eastern Warriors subsequent fall in odds from 3.0 to 2.74. Tradergrays luck again.

Then, while finishing off my notes, I immediately missed the Kinetix opportunity in the 15:50 Newbury, going from 2.06 to 2.26 for the same reason and then reversing back to about 2.10. So I will not be writing notes for my blog as I trade in future!

So today started with a loss in the first race but had none after that and resulted in a turnover of £422 with a profit of £0.66, giving a lowly percentage of 0.15%. I’m really aiming for double the % at least, but it wasn’t a losing day like yesterday!

I have a question, or query rather, for any readers that care to take the time…

In the case of Yarmouth today, where racing was postponed for 30 minutes, what would you guys normally do? I had actually traded for a £0.13 profit in the 14:50 just before announcement was made. I then left it and came back to it at about 15:15 but didn’t do any more trading on the race as there was no money being put through the market. I wondered what you guys did. Subsequent races, although delayed by 30 minutes, seemed to affect other races less so I’m guessing that the normal schedule comes first and if there is time the delayed meetings are traded.

Anyway, I don’t expect to be trading tomorrow so have a good weekend and I’ll catch up next week.

Cheers


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4 comments:

  1. Anonymous12 June 2009 at 11:21

    Personally the delay in racing doesn't make any difference to me as the only real time to trade is proably around 4/5 minutes before the actual off. Any sooner and you're at risk of massive swings in the odds which unless you're aiming for large ticks swings and sure of the direction the market will go is pointless. There's also very liquidity in the markets until nearer the off which may be OK for the amounts you're currently playing with but once you eventually up your stakes it'll become a whole new ball game trying to get matched will low liquidity. The low liquidity and wide spreads will prably be in your favour at the moment but don't get to rely on them as whilst the % profit may be good it's not something you could rely on to make a living or even worthwhile profits in the long run

    ReplyDelete
  2. TraderGray13 June 2009 at 16:04

    Hi Anon

    Thanks for the comments, I'd guessed as much and don't usually trade any earlier than 5-6 minutes before the off until about 30 seconds to go.

    I appreciate that there will be differences in trading with small amounts and larger amounts too. That is why I've not jumped in with large figures immediately. Unlike my first experience with trading some 3 years ago :-(




    Hi Playslip

    Thanks for the offer, it's appreciated. Currently I've no wish to place my email address up on the blog but if you're prepared to send me yours in a comment, which I'll reject so yours is not public too, I'll email you direct.

    Thanks

    Andy

    ReplyDelete
  3. Bradders13 June 2009 at 19:28

    hey tradergray,

    its a little off topic sorry,i dont know how to post up snapshots of a betfair p&l into a post on a blog, can you help?

    i had my first day properly trading today, its hard stuff, what staking plan do you use?

    Thanks

    Peter Brady

    ReplyDelete
  4. TraderGray15 June 2009 at 18:15

    Hi Peter

    To place a picture in your blog just click the "Add Image" icon in the New Post / Create Post window. On my layout it is the 3rd icon from the right after the spellchecker icon.

    Then find the picture on your PC using the browse option, select layout & size and click "Upload Image"

    As for a staking plan I'm currently making £10 trades, back or lay, in the odds range 2.0 - 5.5 and then greening/redding up about 30 seconds before the off.

    Good luck with your trading, I'm not the most qualified by any means but if I can help, I will. Just ask.

    Cheers

    Andy

    ReplyDelete

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