Friday, 28 August 2009
Nothing Doing This Week (Sigh!)
I’ve mentioned before that the business I work in is very heavily influenced by the holiday trade with a 50% increase in business from late July through to early September. We’ve had no extra staff and sickness and holidays to contend with and are operating with less than normal levels of staff for the winter!
All this has conspired to limit my free time these last few weeks which is a shame as I was hoping to use August as “springboard” to increasing my stake level from mid September. I expect this will now have to wait until the beginning of October at least.
I’ll have to go now as I’ve 300 feet of grass to cut! The garden is only about 100 feet long but the grass is now about 3 feet high!
Cheers
Thursday, 20 August 2009
A Brief Respite
Still, I got in 5 races and managed a £0.50 profit on a back traded £98, a heady 0.51% ROI.
Looking at Adam’s (Heathcote) blog he’s got some Betfair “accredited” figures up at the moment, £147 million traded on the horses with a £247k profit, if I read it correctly. That’s roughly a 0.17% ROI, makes me feel better already. Even if the volume is all traded it’s roughly 0.34% ROI compared to mine.
That still makes me feel better but just not as good :-)
Cheers
Monday, 17 August 2009
Normal Service Will Be Resumed!
I hope for a brief respite to get some trading in this week. I will update the blog if I do get to trade and will answer some of the outstanding comments when I can.
Once again my apologies.
Cheers
Andy
Friday, 7 August 2009
A Modest Start
Yesterday I managed to chip away to a small profit with no major issues other than a couple of slips when I tried to record my trading using a program I didn’t really know. It would have been interesting I guess but I wasn’t even able to save the recorded file, more homework on that I think.
Anyway I achieved a profit of £0.80 on a back traded £173.52 which makes my ROI a heady 0.46% for yesterday. This gives me a high to come down from when I can trade next ;-).
I am not sure that I will be able to trade before Tuesday next week but I will update the blog if I do. I plan to get some time down the beach this weekend if work (and weather) allows as I need to catch some sun. See, there are some advantages to living in Cornwall!
Have a good weekend all.
Cheers
Thursday, 6 August 2009
How did July Go
I have to say that I am a little disappointed with the overall profit level as it is almost identical to June, although the manner of the profit achievement is a bit more progressive. Whereas June started off relatively flat and rose quite well from the mid to the end of the month, July was a more steady profit line with more emphasis on a reasonable start and less as the profit line increased more slowly towards the end of the month.
The two biggest spikes, one profit and one loss, were both for the same reason, that is a large amount of money came into the markets and threw the odds down some 8 – 10 points. Fortunately I was on the right side on one of those occasions, though the wrong side on the other, so they effectively wiped each other out. I guess, if I ever make a go of this, it will be a hazard of the “trade”, forgive the pun.
I back traded just over £3,200 during July so with a net profit of £6.15 my return on investment was just short of 0.19%. I could have halved the two near £2.00 losses with quicker decision making and reaction time and really should have performed much better at the time of the near £3 loss. So, like June, I could have nearly doubled my profit for the sake of better management and discipline in a 2 or 3 races.
On the upside the profit line continues to rise which, despite the small figures, is good and pushes me towards increasing my staking level. However I am going to resist the temptation at this time as I have concerns over my capability to react quickly enough when needed and my ability to deal with losses with an “unclouded” mind, though I have made considerable progress with the latter.
I am sure that psychologically my trading has improved but I still get bouts of being too cautionary which I believe affects my trading greater than it should. Very often my cautious nature stops me making an entry and I’ll sit there watching the odds going in the direction I predicted wondering what might have been or I’ll exit too early upon a hesitation in the market, missing another opportunity. I still have a long way to go in the “mind over matter” business.
Another fault I have, connected to the above I expect, is that I don’t attempt enough trades. I have a couple of colleagues that attended the same Bet Angel Academy course that I did and we still keep in touch. Recently one of them sent me his trading P&L on a spreadsheet. When I first glanced at it I thought it was for the month, just over £6K back traded. It turned out to be just that day! Still my ROI was better by 0.03%, so there’s another positive for me.
Overall I guess that July has been ok, I think I may have learnt more from July than June, awareness for one thing and looking at the 2 months the damage that can be done by a few poor decisions. Just over £12 profit for around 175 races, with roughly £13 in losses from just 6 of them. That equates to 3.5% of races accounting for 52% of potential profit, in anybody’s opinion that has to be very poor!
So I’ll bore you for at least another month at low stakes, until I can control my identified failings. The problem is I guess there are going to more unidentified failings yet.
Thanks to those that commented to posts during the month. I have had some really constructive points made to me and I’m not afraid to receive constructive criticism either. Please feel free to leave comments, advice etc.
Oh, and by the way, although it may not seem so sometimes I do really enjoy this trading lark.
Happy trading and…
ROLL ON AUGUST!
Cheers
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
Quick Wednesday Update
I traded one race yesterday but thought the race had been cancelled so I didn’t check my Betfair account. I was pleased to see today that I was mistaken and my massive £0.07 profit from the race was there today.
I’ve included yesterdays race in today’s P&L, it gives me a much better profit total (4.5 x in fact). Today was ok except I left my trade in the 15:10 Pontefract in too long again, as it went against me.
The only other notable race for me was the 16:30 Brighton and because of my cautious style I exited, and deep down new it, far too early.
The trend of the selection I was trading was up, up, up! As the odds came down, very slowly, I placed a lay entry at 5.1, the lowest the odds achieved before it went in play. I traded out at 5.4 after the market hesitated at 5.4 – 5.6 and after I traded out the odds didn’t stop until 6.6, b****y marvellous! Not to worry that race profit of 20p turned the day into profit.
So I managed a 2p profit on the day, 9p with the race yesterday that I thought had been cancelled.
I don’t usually trade at odds over 6.0, though I will be doing so soon, but as there were a couple of races with the favourite higher than 6.0 I decided to trade the place market in the 16:00 Brighton. A reasonable success but I suspect that I would need to watch the markets longer to see how they react. I guess it was just beginners luck.
Catch you all soon.
Cheers
Tuesday, 4 August 2009
Last Day of July
I had hoped to leave July with a bang but instead left it with a loss. I made the mistake of leaving a couple of poor trades in too long as it went against me both times (15:40 Bangor). Here is the annoying thing, I recovered the race from a net -£3.34 to a net -£1.73 on the race. If I could only capture that later trading first, hell, my confidence would be so much higher!
Again, the following races after the loss I performed much better than before the loss and it seems I need some “impetus” for profit making, or at least to trade more effectively. Sometimes I really don’t know.
So for the last day of July I posted a loss of £0.77, safe in the knowledge that the big loss of the day could have been lower, or even in profit, with a little more discipline.
I’ve had a quick look at my July performance and will post in the next few days. Initially it looks ok but not really as good as I had thought, or hoped. Anyway, no more drivel for now.
Cheers
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Got a Few In Today
My trading was ok with, again, a slow steady profit and only one losing race. Though once again I managed to “rescue” more races from negative positions than positive starts, the first race being an exception.
Going by the first race, which were all positive or scratch trades, I should be doing much better and my best recovery was the losing race, going from -£0.38 to -£0.06.
So I have to ask myself what is it that enables me to recover a position more efficiently than I am able to make consistent, profitable trades. I am guessing that some mental searching is probably required.
Anyway, let’s not go in too deep and say that today I achieved a profit of £0.55 on a back traded £119, giving me a %ROI of 0.46%, better than most recent results.
I have more to write but it is probably better to leave that until I do my July summary in a few days, most of my comments are about my trading ability and where I think I am with the trading mentality at this time, so I will leave that for now.
I do have an issue that I don’t seem to be able to overcome and, I believe, it is holding me back somewhat. I do not like to back first and as a result I think that I miss some great opportunities. I have tried to do a bit more recently but feel very uncomfortable for some reason, probably a mental thing again.
So I have a query for any readers who can afford the time to comment about whether you have a preference for backing or laying first and if so why do you have this preference.
I would have thought that a 50/50 split between backing and laying first would have been, how do you describe it, healthy. The last time I actually checked my history on this, my split was 89/11 in favour of laying first.
Anyway, I’ve rambled on long enough and I’d be grateful for any comments.
Cheers
Wednesday, 29 July 2009
A Quick Update
That’s neat, the Stones “Jumping Jack Flash” has just come on the radio, one of my favourite tracks, and one of the funniest scenes I’ve seen, in the film of the same name, with Whoopi Goldberg dancing around her flat trying to decipher Jacks code.
I digress, a neat little profit yesterday but not from trading, well I suppose it was as I placed a “bet”, not an intentional opening trade, and then “chickened out” and decided to trade out in play for a net of £2.69. My luck held, having traded out it went on to win :-( well never mind. I will leave this race out of my July results when I put up my trading stats at the end of the month.
I got everything ready to trade this afternoon and, after a hard nights shift, got to sleep in good time this morning, slept straight through my alarm and woke up at 15:45. So no trading today and probably not tomorrow. I think it’ll be Friday before I will have the time to trade so I’ll update then if so.
I will, over the weekend, put up my July results in a similar fashion to June but I don’t expect to have much time to trade before Tuesday next week.
Good luck & discipline!
Cheers
Wednesday, 22 July 2009
Steady Again?
However, of the 10 profitable races I had, I actually traded 6 from negative positions following my first couple of trades in each of the races. I couldn’t quite manage it with the 16:10 Worcester although I recovered the race from £0.64 down at one point.
My best trade was to catch a small swing in the 15:20 Catterick where I made a £0.47 gain on the second favourite, after dropping £0.14 on the favourite. I managed to catch the start of the rise one tick above its lowest and got out right at the top of the short swing, just before the odds dropped again. It was quite pleasing at the time but it then proceeded to shoot up another 12 – 15 ticks about 30 seconds later :-(.
So a profit of £0.73 today which is roughly 0.3% ROI, yet again, I’d still prefer it to be higher for less stress!
I may be able to trade tomorrow, I’m not sure as I’m expecting to be busy most of the day.
Cheers
Tuesday, 21 July 2009
A Few Thoughts
Now I know this gives me a small profit using my current stake level but I figured that if I can improve my ROI I would feel more confident about increasing my stake level.
June turned out to be a turning point for me, with my trading mentality becoming far more normal than my gambling mentality. In July this has continued and, although it has slowed down somewhat, it looks like July will be another steady month, time will tell!
Today I didn’t get very far, granted I’ve made another profit but at this rate It’ll be the year 3000 before I can retire! I think I prefer trading at the latter part of the week as the race starts are closer together. I don’t seem to be able to put any rhythm into my trading when the races are 15 minutes apart, there is too much time between races for my liking and I can let my mind wander too much.
Anyway, turned in another tiny profit of £0.32 on a back traded £74, well at least the ROI was better at 0.43%
I gave up after the 16:00, other things to do I told myself! Just as well as Mrs TG came home early from work just as I was doing the dishes. It’s not what you do, it’s what you are perceived to do, works wonders!
Anyway I hope to be back tomorrow.
Cheers
Thursday, 16 July 2009
Slow Going
I found trading extremely hard work today and missed quite a few opportunities so, although I made a bigger profit than yesterday, I feel I was not at my best.
However, I managed to turn in a small profit of £0.66 on a back traded £237, making my ROI just under 0.28%, small fry but still a profit.
I’m not working tonight so I’m off out for a few beers this evening (only a few, honest). I’ll be staying away from home and coming back for lunchtime tomorrow.
Hopefully I’ll be sufficiently refreshed to trade tomorrow afternoon.
Catch you soon.
Cheers
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Stay Focussed
My first trade was entered with the wrong (a very carefree) attitude, not just dropping an entry point in the market, but with some thought behind it. It went against me so I cut out, got back in again, went against me, cut out, etc. etc.
I was actually quite pleased at just a £0.60 loss as prior to my current regime I would probably have left it run a bit longer and got into further trouble. The next race I approached with extreme caution but, again operating good discipline I ended with a £0.27 profit, nearly 50% of the first race loss.
The next few races went ok, nothing special but it is my trading ability that I am trying to improve, not so much the profits.
The 16:30 at Catterick is where I may have found myself on the edge of this “zone” you hear so much of. I didn’t actually notice at the time but, looking back, I was totally focussed on what was going on and with a high level of concentration I almost seemed to place my entry and exit points in “harmony” with the market.
This all probably sounds like bull but honestly, when I look back I don’t think I was aware of anything going on around me, just a total focus on the job in hand.
So then I felt invincible, a very bad move, and screwed up the next 2 races and ended losing half of the previous race gain, although I did recover both from poorer positions. Despite all this I did manage to pull a profit of £0.45 today, a 0.31% ROI on my back traded £143.00.
A good trader, I’ve read, does not focus on the previous 1, 2, 3, 10, 20 or 50 trades as each market is capable of offering something new and different to any previous market. Remain focussed on what you have to do, you can influence that. Learn from what you have done as you cannot change it, no matter how hard you try.
Jeez, Am I getting philosophical? It must be time for bed.
Cheers All
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Some Mediocre Results
This time though I managed to trade out with just over £2 profit and other trades in the same race gave me a £2.85 profit overall.
However, today exactly the same thing happened to me in the 16:10 at Downpatrick only this time I was on the lay side first. I managed to get out at about a £3.00 loss and traded back to a £2.66 loss on the race.
I somehow feel that when you’re lucky something will take it and when you’re not lucky it’s just tough!
Never mind, over the 2 days I managed to stay in profit by £0.75.
Hopefully back again tomorrow.
Cheers
Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Disappointed but Happy
I’d traded to a profit of £0.60 in the 14:45 Lingfield and attempted another trade. It was obvious that it wasn’t going my way so I cut out in my normal fashion, to scratch the trade, using the offset column in BA’s ladder. It closed the trade, and my existing offset 1 tick away, vanished from the ladder.
Well you’ve guessed it by now the existing offset wasn’t cancelled but taken at the very same time and I didn’t notice. I closed my graphs as the race went in play and moved to the one click screen to see a big £23 red against all but one of the runners. I reacted immediately by checking the green up box and closed out for a £1.81 loss.
To push the knife in further the odds went from the 3.45 at that time to 4.7 with my break even around 4.0. Had I waited I could have achieved a nice profit, but no, I did the right thing, I’ve been on the other side too many times in my early days.
So today I managed to back trade just over £750 with a profit of £2.35, a ROI of 0.31%. It should have been better, much better and I would have achieved a clean day, no losses anyway, without the mistake. I guess I’m not yet ready to go with bigger stakes!
I was happy with my trading today in general, it seemed to go quite smooth and I only had to recover a couple of losing positions to profit.
With the weather particularly dour here in Cornwall I doubt I’ll get to the beach this week, so much for taking time off in the summer.
I’m not sure when I’ll trade again this week. I got the chance today as Mrs TG went to Truro with a friend to see some Take That tribute band (yawn!) not my scene.
Happy Trading & Cheers
Friday, 3 July 2009
So So Friday
I had a number of interruptions during the afternoon and this also conspired to damage my concentration somewhat. However, I managed to pull in a small profit of £0.64 for the day with no losing races after the first.
I “back” traded just over £330 so my ROI for today was a measly 0.19% but that is better than a loss!
I was going to watch the rest of the Roddick/Murray match before going to bed. I hoped it wouldn’t be too long a match as I start work at 10pm tonight. Unfortunately I decided to install IE8 and update the blog. I then found that IE8 does not allow you to copy and paste and, as I compile my blog in MS Word, this was no use to me. I’ve just uninstalled and reverted back to IE7 and everything works fine now.
And Andy Murray has lost, better luck next year.
Both Mrs TG and me are on holiday next week so I expect my trading will be very limited, I will update if I get the chance so have a good weekend and a good week.
Cheers
Thursday, 2 July 2009
July – A Good Start
I managed to get a little trading in yesterday (Wednesday), just two races in the early afternoon with a small profit of £0.39. I didn’t post yesterday as I’d not quite finished my June summary and I wanted to get that finished first.
As always nothing major to report but it set me thinking a bit more and I decided on a little different strategy today. I’ve seen many times during my trades that I exit too early, detailed particularly in last Wednesdays post.
So for today I thought I’d stay in the trades a little longer, provided they were not continuing against me. What I tend to do is if a trade doesn’t actually go anywhere or drops one or two ticks I get out immediately, only to see the market move the way I thought.
I decided that if a trade did not appear to be going anywhere I would just leave it open and see what happens, on the assumption that my initial “gut” decision was correct.
This had a twofold effect for me. In the first instance it actually worked ok for most trades but, disconcertingly it made me more cautious. However, it’s all about profit and I returned £2.30 today, on a “back” trade total of £120. That’s a massive, by my standards, ROI of 1.91%, hey – big smile!
It’s my day off tomorrow so I should be able to get a decent afternoon in and test whether I’ve learnt anything or have just been lucky recently. Oh what a way to build confidence!
Cheers
How did June Go
The difference between June and other months is purely the discipline. I still get frustrated at times and the temptation is always there to push too far, especially to “recover” a losing position. However, this has really only caught me out on one occasion, the early £3 loss in the graph below.
What is apparent from the graph is that the two big losses (£3+ each) account for roughly the same as my profit for the whole month. So had they been managed better, to the tune of my worst race losses over the period, my profit would have been around £10 - £11 rather than the £6 it was.
Yes, I pinched the graph idea from “Bet Your Life Sports Trading”, I like it, it’s better and more informative than looking at a spreadsheet. I like the blog too, it’s a good read.
I “back” traded just over £2,200 in June, far less than I have done in the three previous months, but it has been far more structured than before. The ROI comes in at 0.27%, nowhere near where I want to be but in previous months half a dozen or so bad trades or decisions had cost me much more than the profit in each of those months. Not this time though!
Overall, I’m quite happy with my performance for June. They are not outstanding figures but nice and steady. I seem to be managing my exit strategy much better than I used to and, I believe, I am also managing my entry points better.
My time has been rather limited in June and I would have preferred to have had many more races and many more trades under my belt, it would have given me a much better sample to evaluate my progress.
Finally, for this post anyway, I don’t know whether it is co-incidence or as a result of, but the first race traded with over a £1.00 profit was just after I picked up and started reading “Trading in the Zone”
We’ll just have to see.
Cheers
Friday, 26 June 2009
One Tick Wonder
Nothing major just some one tick wins with me not being under any real pressure. Some straight forward trading resulting in a very small profit of £0.43.
I haven’t much time to comment on today as I’m dropping Mrs TG into Newquay shortly for a girl’s night out so have a good weekend all.
Cheers
Thursday, 25 June 2009
Know What You’re Doing!
I’d dropped a tick on my first trade and elected to switch the auto offset on to recover this within the next couple of trades. Except I forgot when I started trading again.
Having been used to trading manually, both entry and exit positions, here I am placing my exits manually and then having the offset click in placing the reverse. I got a little confused for a few seconds before I realised what I’d been doing, cancelled all open positions and found myself nearly £4 down somehow.
The best I could do with the time left was to trade back to a £3.26 loss which meant that the earlier, laborious, good run had come to an end and put me back to the beginning of yesterday, closing at a £1.70 loss for the day.
I’m not cut up about it, I know that a lapse in concentration and focus probably aided this mistake. Better to make these errors with the small stakes I use and learn from them now in readiness for the bigger stakes to come.
I’ve got a day off tomorrow, but so has Mrs TG so I’m not sure about trading for the next few days. If I don’t catch you before, have a good weekend.
Cheers
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
Another Steady Day
I nearly destroyed my days “work” in the 16:40, finding myself again around £1.30 down, but managed to pull it back for a small profit.
In the final race I managed to lay “Budwiser” at 2.54 and trade out at 2.60, I thought I’d done well only to see it continue right up to 2.80, then fall down to 2.22 and then rise back up to about 2.74, these swings I must learn to catch!
It turned out to be my most profitable race of the day and topped my days profit up to a grand total of £1.70 and keeps me on course for a profitable June.
It’s been suggested that when calculating my return % I should express it as a percentage of the total back stake used. So today’s return, with a total back stake of £266 is 0.63%, I know it needs to be better.
Cheers
Tuesday, 23 June 2009
One of my Better Days
Last Friday I didn’t trade the afternoon but spent some time reading “Trading in the Zone” and watching the markets. The reading caused me to look at the markets slightly differently, not so much as the enemy, but more as the opportunity to be taken.
After a couple of hours I couldn’t resist the temptation to trade and, taking note of what I’d read and noticed, I traded the 17:20 Musselburgh for a few minutes. To cut a long story short I traded some £550 in those few minutes, some going against and some going for me. In the end I profited by £1.28.
The most noticeable thing to me was my attitude to what was actually going on whilst I traded. There was no sense of alarm when the trade went against me, it was a case of moving on and looking for the next opportunity.
On Saturday I was raring to go for a full afternoon of trading but Mrs TG had other ideas, though I did manage to trade the 16:55 Newmarket for a profit of £0.71. I adopted the methods used Friday and, thankfully, the same mindset and came away quite full of confidence.
I did a bit more reading on Sunday & Monday and made sure I was away early from work today, and rested well, for some trading this afternoon.
By the time I sat down at the PC this afternoon I was brimming with confidence so, to avoid any potentially damaging repercussions from some poor trading, I immediately halved my stake. I am now using £0.50 tick sizes as I feel it puts my bank under no real pressure but, if things go well enough, I will have no real issue in raising the stakes.
So, this afternoon bought, what I feel to be, some extremely good trading although I would like to have done much more. The trades I made were, generally, good decisions and despite some turning against me initially I profited in every race. I usually get at least a couple of scratch and / or losing races.
My turnover, at £423, wasn’t as high as I thought it would have been but turning in a profit of £2.39 gives me the highest % return (0.56%) I’ve had from pure trading for some while.
Although I am not new to trading it is nearly 6 months since I started this current regime and I do believe that I have achieved something this last week or so. I have said many times that my fear of losing tends to rule my mind but I feel this has changed somewhat recently and has made me look more at the opportunities presented.
There is still a little time to go but I am on course for a small profit for June. I would like to think I am beginning to pass that “Don’t Lose Money” stage and maybe over the coming months I can turn in regular profits.
Now, by saying that I’ve probably spoilt any chance of a profitable month, so here’s to tomorrow.
Cheers
Thursday, 18 June 2009
No Drivel Today
I hope that further reading will help me as I‘ve now landed a copy of “Trading In The Zone” thanks to a generous reader.
I don’t have Friday off this week due to staff holidays so I’m not sure what time I will have tomorrow, or before next Monday / Tuesday but hopefully I will be able to get some trading in.
Cheers
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
A Pivotal Day?
I’ve read that many people are finding it tough trading the weeks of big meetings, well, me too! I had a bit of a go yesterday but gave up after a short while, no losses, an 8p profit if I remember right. I just found the markets difficult to read and difficult to get matched outside the money.
Today started off exactly the same but I thought I’d persevere, after all I’d like to make a profit at this one day. I didn’t think it was going particularly well, quite poorly in fact, but at the end of the afternoon I found I’d only lost £0.25 and suffered less losing races than I thought.
At one point, after my third to last race, I was quite down, mentally not financially (at the time) because I’d struggled to just scratch the trade, due to the “money scoopers”, which at one point was £0.57 in profit.
I traded the second to last ok, but without any real conviction, still I managed a profit.
This was a tough mindset to take to what was my last race. However, whilst I was observing the markets my mind said to me “go for it, if it goes against you, don’t worry, just get out and try again”. It’s a very odd thought for me.
So I set about trading my last race and this is how it went…
1) Lay Astrodiva @ 2.94, backed @ 2.86 and redded out for -£0.28
2) Lay Astrodiva @ 2.72, backed @ 2.66 and redded out for -£0.23
So -£0.51 after 2 trades
3) Lay Whispering Gallery @ 2.16, backed at 2.18 and greened for £0.09
4) Lay Whispering Gallery @ 2.12, backed at 2.14 and greened for £0.09
So now still -£0.33 after 4 trades.
As I was watching the Astrodiva ladder something in my mind said “it’s gonna go” so my final trade…
5) Lay Astrodiva @ 2.68, backed @ 2.80 and greened for £0.46
To say I was chuffed would be an understatement and this race went a long way to changing my mental attitude, both for the afternoon and, I hope, for the future, we’ll just have to see!
I hope this drivel hasn't bored you.
Cheers
Thursday, 11 June 2009
Analytical Times
Many people have suggested the book “Trading in The Zone” so I guess it is a must to purchase and will get hold of it as soon as possible, I’m hoping it will help me overcome the ghosts that sit in my mind when trading.
So, let’s have a look at some analytical stuff…
This is a picture of the various graphs that are available and what happened whilst I was watching what was going on in the 15:35 Nottingham.
It’s things like this I need to understand. The WOM pressure (lower graph) was down for some time, as you can see from the picture. The 3 circled graph areas on the picture cover roughly the same time period for Eastern Warrior, and I would normally be tempted to back as a couple of indicators said to me this was the current best policy. Despite this the odds continued to rise early on, making me nervous and I didn’t make an entry this time. Unfortunately, whilst writing this I missed Candy Stripe’s refusal to go in the stalls and Eastern Warriors subsequent fall in odds from 3.0 to 2.74. Tradergrays luck again.
Then, while finishing off my notes, I immediately missed the Kinetix opportunity in the 15:50 Newbury, going from 2.06 to 2.26 for the same reason and then reversing back to about 2.10. So I will not be writing notes for my blog as I trade in future!
In the case of Yarmouth today, where racing was postponed for 30 minutes, what would you guys normally do? I had actually traded for a £0.13 profit in the 14:50 just before announcement was made. I then left it and came back to it at about 15:15 but didn’t do any more trading on the race as there was no money being put through the market. I wondered what you guys did. Subsequent races, although delayed by 30 minutes, seemed to affect other races less so I’m guessing that the normal schedule comes first and if there is time the delayed meetings are traded.
Anyway, I don’t expect to be trading tomorrow so have a good weekend and I’ll catch up next week.
Cheers
Don’t Chase Losses
This would have worked out reasonably well for yesterday had I not made an error and also gave me an absolutely fantastic lesson too, one I’ve already learnt as I didn’t compound the error further. Let me explain…
A bit disappointed I traded out of the 14:50 Brighton at a loss of £0.73, not too damaging on its own but at the time I didn’t realise that I’d clicked twice in the back column on the ladder interface.
By the time I’d noticed, which was no more than 30 seconds later, then checked the Bet Angel log for what I had done, a further £2.30 had been lost. I immediately traded out to a £3.11 loss and was kicking myself for the mistake. Within seconds the race went in play and on the one click screen I was showing a £3.09 – £3.12 red across the card.
This is when my mind went to work, ok I can lay a selection at £3.12 making a net zero, which selection?, I know towards the end of the race any of the runners that achieve odds greater than 8.0 but less than 15.0, it’s got to be worth a try.
So towards the end of the race here I am with finger poised to lay this selection at 10. This is when my sense took over and I realised what I was doing. I leaned back in my chair and took the £3.09 on the chin and moved on. You’ve already guessed it, the selection went on to win, so instead of a £3.11 loss I’d have been looking at a £28 loss, good decision there then!
So whilst a bit erratic in a couple of races in the main my trading was relatively stable, although I made a loss of £1.32 on the day. The picture shows a £1.12 loss as I’ve included the single race I managed to trade the day before. Just before my boss rang and ruined the afternoons trading with a 90 minute phone call.
I turned over £550 including Tuesday but made a loss of 0.20% or £1.12. Thank god I didn’t turn over that £1,000,000!
I have Thursday and Friday off this week but currently have plans for Friday. So I expect to get a full afternoon trading in on Thursday and then probably won’t be back until next week. I’ll update later anyway.
Cheers
Saturday, 6 June 2009
A Weeks Summary
I seem to have too many interruptions at the moment and, coupled with my erratic working hours, it makes it difficult for me to trade with any decent level of concentration. I’ve said before that I work nights, starting about midnight and finishing about 10:00, and I like to get a few hours sleep before I trade.
The last couple of weeks I’ve been finishing later, as late as midday, and to get adequate sleep before I trade means I’m not getting up before mid afternoon. I also like to spend 30 minutes or so doing my “trading homework” with a cup of tea or coffee before I actually start trading.
A typical example of how I’m affected by lack of rest etc. is Thursday this week, no major loss but a loss all the same. When I’m tired I tend to let the losing trades run a little longer than normal and whilst I can regularly trade to small profits a single poor decision can cost me 2-4 races profit.
By poor decision I mean my indecisiveness in exiting a trade quick enough, though today my speed cost me. I backed Titus Andronicus (16:05 Musselburgh) at 3.00, which momentarily dipped to 2.94 and I traded out at 2.96. I then had a quick glance at the next race, came back to the 16:05 some 30 seconds later to find Titus at 2.74, ah well, such is life.
Anyhow, for the week I’ve managed a net profit of £1.05 on a turnover of £296 which gives me a % return of 0.35%. Now if only I could turnover £1,000,000 per week :-)
Most of you have probably read this already but if you haven’t then you must read Adam Heathcote’s post on entry points, it contains some excellent information for trading. I, for one, will be reading it on a regular basis.
Anyway, whatever you’re doing this weekend, have a good one.
Cheers
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
Back In The Swing?
I figured that I’m getting better at scratch trading but didn’t really do anything worth getting excited about. I didn’t “recycle” my stake much either as you’ll see from the results.
My trading was cut short by a business colleague phoning me for advice on a job interview and that destroyed my concentration so I packed in after 30 minutes with a profit of £0.95 for the day.
Base Level £10.00 / Ave Per Race £0.31 / Return 3.10%
Turnover today £42 with a profit of 2.26%
Touchwood, I should be back tomorrow.
Cheers
Sunday, 31 May 2009
I'm Still Here
Just a quick post to say I'm still around. I haven't traded since the last post and, in fact, I've hardly touched the PC for over a week.
It's been tremendously busy at work and Cornwall, being a holiday area, is seriously affected by the seasonal influx of holiday makers. I also had to undertake a 3 day Fork Lift test so ended up only working and sleeping for the last 7 days or so.
Rest assured I should be back this week, I'm hoping for Tuesday but that is looking very busy so hopefully by Wednesday at the latest.
Catch you soon.
Andy
Friday, 22 May 2009
Very Quick Post
Base Level £10.00 / Ave Per Race -£0.02 / Return -1.10%
Turnover today £372 with a loss of 0.03%
I hope to get some trading in tomorrow but, as always, the weekends are now dictated by Mrs TG’s arrangements.
Whatever happens have a good weekend.
Cheers
Wednesday, 20 May 2009
Strategy Adjustment
So I’ve spent a bit of time, not enough really, reading some trading literature and watching a few of both the Bet Angel and Racing Traders videos again.
Whilst, in my opinion, the Bet Angel software is far superior to the Bet Trader equivalent, I find many of the Bet Trader videos more helpful to me as a beginner.
Having spent some time doing “homework” I’ve sort of gone back to basics with my trading, in so much that my general strategy has returned to that which I started with back in January. The main difference now is that I am applying my increased knowledge of trading to those strategies.
In an effort to monitor my consistency I need to develop a measure that is quantifiable and for this reason I have reduced my trading level to 1/30th of my bank in order to make mistakes and keep the damage to a minimum.
Should my consistency improve I will raise my trading level and see how things progress. The only issue that annoys me a little at the moment is that my trading time has become somewhat limited but I hope to rectify that in the near future.
Any ideas from the trading fraternity as to what would be a good measure of consistency will be gratefully received but as a start I will measure my average race profit as a percentage of my base trading level.
And so on to today, I had very little time again but managed to get a few races in at the end of the afternoon. It is interesting, for me, that all three races started with a losing or scratch trade but all three ended in profit. This gave me a profit of £0.75 over the three races.
So using my new “consistency” measure, well at least for now…
Base Level : £8.00, Ave Per Race : £0.25, % Return : 3.12%
Hopefully I’ll be back tomorrow and as I’ve got Friday off again, normal service should be resumed…
Cheers
Friday, 15 May 2009
What Happened?
I achieved a loss of £12.02 today but I am still at a loss to understand why. I wasn’t having a particularly favourable day but I expected to be, at the vey least, breaking even.
I nipped out to the local garage around 15:25 to get some munchies and when I returned I refreshed the BF balance to find it was about £14 less than I was expecting. So I checked my account in Betfair to find there was a loss of £10.51 on the 15:00 Newmarket, a race where I had a full green book of at least £2.30 shortly after it had gone in-play.
It transpires that Rule Four came in to play over Tropical Paradise being withdrawn. The mystery to me is, according to my Bet Angel log (next picture), that I placed a back bet of £2 @ 50.0 on Tropical Storm some 38 seconds AFTER the race went in-play (15:07:48) and it was matched a couple of seconds later (15:08:26).
The next picture is my Betfair “Voided” list, this may help explain something, I don’t know!
Whatever, I need to understand what happened and whether it applies to Bookmaking in the same way as well or would the reverse happen and you make more profit? I’ve absolutely no idea.
I’ve “handcrafted” this spreadsheet to use both Dutching & Bookmaking in certain types of race and was planning to test it a bit more soon. On the race above I didn’t use it, but used the Dutching tab in Bet Angel.
I think Mrs TG is out tomorrow afternoon so I may well get some time to trade and if so I will post again tomorrow. If not then have a good weekends trading.
Cheers
Thursday, 14 May 2009
Another Busy Week
At first glance I wasn’t too impressed with my figures for today, and I guess I’m not really anyway. However, I didn’t realise until I looked at the P&L that I’d only traded for about 90 minutes. Shortly after that the telephone rang and there I stayed until around 18:00. It wasn’t too long ago that I would struggle to make today’s profit in an afternoon, so I guess that £1.64 in 90 minutes is my daily positive (I always try and have at least one!)
Ok, so £1.64 is not a great deal but when I started this “journey” I’d be happier with less. The one thing I found today is that you can get out of practice, certainly for me that is. I haven’t traded since last Friday and I felt a little “rusty” today.
Once again I have tomorrow off, so a bit of reading, a bit of relaxation and, hopefully, a whole afternoon of trading!
Cheers
Friday, 8 May 2009
Just Not Disciplined Enough
With a well disciplined start, being a little more selective with the races I traded, adjusting stake and strategy to match my abilities etc. etc. the first few races went according to plan.
After that I went a bit awry, I carried the 15:15 in-play and was staring at a mind numbing £68 red before the race finished. Fortunately it worked out ok for me in the end with a profit of £44.78 in the race.
With this indiscipline I quit for the afternoon, considering myself to be extremely lucky that I was over £50 up instead of £90 down. However, the pull of trading, despite the stress sometimes I still really enjoy it, got me back at the PC just over an hour later. This time I did exactly the same thing and it didn’t work out.
Why is it? Your mind knows the correct thing to do but it also prevents you from doing it, despite the most obvious dangers. 7 weeks I went without taking a trade in play but it still catches me now. Fortunately the loss was so much less than the win and I ended with a profitable day.
If I had exited at the correct time on the 2 races my net P&L for the day would have been around £6.00, if both had gone wrong for me my net would have been a loss of about £92.00. As it happens I ended the day nearly £42.00 up and feel I need to do some work on my mindset.
So, I doubt I will trade over the weekend, I think I’m too dangerous for my own good at the moment and will come back refreshed on Monday / Tuesday next week.
Have a good weekend.
Cheers
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
Back With A Whimper!
It’s been a hellish few days at both work and home and I haven’t had time to do much at all, but I did manage to get a few races in today.
Nothing special to report but I still managed to make a small profit of £2.68 trading 3 races late afternoon / early evening.
I suspect I may not have much time tomorrow but, with the day off, I’m hoping to get a full afternoons trading in on Friday.
Cheers
Friday, 1 May 2009
Up ‘n Down
It turned out to be quite disappointing with a very mixed day today. I started off quite well but couldn’t get it quite right after the initial impetus and really tailed off after that.
In particular the 15:40 Southwell just didn’t work for me at all. Every trade I placed almost immediately went in the opposite direction and my usual tact is to close the trade and reverse my position. Virtually every time I did this the odds went back the other way. I guess had I started trading 15 seconds earlier it could have been totally different :-).
So today ended at a loss, albeit a small loss of £3.24 so we’ll move on and see what tomorrow brings.
Cheers
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Nothing Special
Fortunately I had more gains than losses and ended the day with a profit of £7.04 which I feel a little disappointed with but as I’ve said before, many times, profit is profit.
Overall I don’t think my mental attitude was totally focussed today and I’m a bit tired from a busy week. I expect that these combined may have affected my performance somewhat.
Tomorrow is another day so I’ll see what that brings.
Cheers
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Late Start - Early Finish
Anyway I woke up about 15:15 and settled down to trade for the rest of the afternoon and got a phone call at 16:05 which lasted for around 90 minutes, so I decided to give up for the day.
So today I managed a small profit of £3.49 for about 30 minutes trading which is ok I suppose. 3 – 4 weeks ago I would have been happy to return that level of profit for an afternoons trading.
I just have to mention that I was playing Texas Hold ‘Em with a few friends on Sunday, only for pennies though. The very first hand I got dealt 2 Aces and the flop was an Ace and 2 Kings. There were 5 of us playing, each with reasonable hands and everyone was “all in” on the river. Needless to say I won and the game ended rather abruptly. As we really only play for social (and a beer) reasons I gave everyone back their “pots” and we played again.
I just wish I could have some luck like that whilst trading :-)
Anyway, back tomorrow.
Cheers
Saturday, 25 April 2009
Road To Recovery
A neat and tidy profit of £14.40 for today with I little bit of luck in the 16:25 Market Rasen where I’d placed a higher than normal exit trade only to see the price “spike” by 7 ticks and scoop up my nicely profitable exit in my final trade of the race.
I’ve had time to think about yesterday and I don’t believe it’s affected me in any negative ways at all. I know what I did wrong, so it’s been an expensive lesson learnt. Since the race of the actual loss I’ve already recovered nearly £35.00 so just over £50.00 to go.
I may have time to trade tomorrow and Monday but I’m not sure, so I plan to be back on Tuesday. But if I do get a chance to trade I’ll post again.
Cheers
Friday, 24 April 2009
Mucked Up Big Style
So after 7 weeks of NOT taking a trade in play, why oh why did I do it today? What changed my mental attitude to this, probably one of my last, and most fatal, disciplines? Why, when I’ve preached this for so long now, didn’t I practice it? Was it over confidence? I don’t think so, I don’t usually start off that confident.
Well, whatever it actually was, here’s the mucking damage…
I suppose one good thing has come from it, I have a sneaking suspicion that I will NEVER take a trade in play again.
So today’s P&L looks a bit sick, but some good trading and tight disciplines pulled about £20 back to leave today’s P&L at a £67.14 loss. On an interesting note I got 43 Betfair points for the loss, none of the other races gave me more than 2!
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Just a Quick Go
I woke up about 14:30 and made an attempt at trading but wasn’t able to concentrate enough so I gave it up after a couple of goes.
Still, I made a small profit of £1.15 and hopefully will be back tomorrow.
I say hopefully as I have to drive to Newport tonight for a 03:00 am Health & Safety meeting and I’m not sure whether I will be back to have a decent sleep in time to trade tomorrow, but here’s hoping anyway.
Cheers
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Following On
Again today started off nice and steady until the 15:00 Folkestone when I got a phone call from work to start at 17:00 tonight, yes in just under 2 hours :-( so I’m going to get a short sleep now.
I managed just 4 races today and accumulated a profit of £6.65 in an hours worth of trading, better than the minimum wage anyway.
Must dash and get a short snooze, being picked up later so I’ll catch you tomorrow.
Cheers
Friday, 17 April 2009
It’s About Time
Everything I did today worked out ok with the exception of the 14:50 Ayr. With only three runners with odds in the range 3.0 – 4.1 initially, I wasn’t sure on the best way to trade so I just threw a few in to see what happened. It didn’t happen for me but only a minor loss.
Normally I have the reverse “Midas” touch, everything I touch turns to c**p but today someone was watching over me, probably my bank manager :-)
Although not my best daily P&L, I almost certainly had my best trading day yet, no luck involved, good or bad, just plain steady trading. The only disappointing thing about the afternoon was I had to cut it short due to a couple of phone calls, who knows what I may have achieved. All the same a net profit of £22.36 was an incredibly satisfying result.
I’d like to think I’d turned a corner in my trading but that would be a little premature. There is still a long way to go and, today anyway, confidence is high. It is for this reason a probably won’t trade again before Monday, possibly even Tuesday next week and I will end a very topsy turvy week with a profit of £1.69.
Oh, and by the way, I didn’t even switch on RUK so I can’t tell you what the delay was like today but Betfairs own streamed offering was only 10-14 seconds behind, on the times I noticed it.
Have an excellent weekend y’all
Cheers
Thursday, 16 April 2009
A Good Poor Day
The reason must be because, although I lost £10.89 today, a click error combined with my limited knowledge caused a £22.15 loss in 1 race which, I believe, should have been a loss of around £3.00 had I done it correctly.
I’d been using the Bet Angel “Dutching” option again and this time also using the “Take SP All” option when the race went in play. With the 15:20 Cheltenham I clicked the “Keep All” option by mistake, didn’t notice and went off to put the kettle on.
When I came back, less than a minute later, the race was in play but still with the bet unmatched. A quick check on the log identified what I’d done so I cancelled the bet and went to “Green/Red” up on the “One Click” screen. I realised immediately that this option is disabled when using the “Dutching” or “Bookmaking” tabs and then realised I had no exit strategy worked out for this eventuality.
So now I’m trying to calculate, in my head, the profit from the other selections in order to stake an amount on the unmatched selection to lessen the blow, but all a bit too late and it went on to win.
That is my luck sometimes, I back all but one of the selections and it goes on to win. Still, an excellent lesson learnt and I now know what to do in the future should it happen again.
Taking that particular race out of the equation would have seen me with roughly a £10 profit for the day which I would have considered to be very good. Essentially it was a bit of mix and match for my trading but I feel pretty good about how it went.
I’ve had no comments about RUK but today I had it on all throughout the afternoon and, to be perfectly honest, it did not help me one bit. The time delay was, however, better than yesterday at some 30-33 seconds behind the in play suspension on Bet Angel.
Here’s looking forward to tomorrow.
Cheers
Wednesday, 15 April 2009
What Benefit is RUK?
I saw the first race I looked at go in-play and was expecting the race to start with the pictures some 10 – 20 seconds later. 42 seconds later the runners were off and this wasn’t abnormal. I only monitored a few races, maybe 5 or 6 but the quickest after Bet Angel showed suspended was a mighty 39 seconds.
I’ll reserve judgement for a day or two but I am wondering whether there is any value in having RUK. I would have expected 10 – 15 seconds but not more than triple these times, maybe my expectation was too high, I don’t know.
I said I’ll take a screenshot of my single monitor I use when trading and you’ll see it is quite obvious that I need at least another or a bigger screen. If you want a laugh then have a look at the pic below.
Today I only managed a couple of races. It was a bit frustrating because a planned finish at work for 09:00 turned into another midday finish and another 12 hour shift. As I like to complete the 4 S’s before I trade I overslept and didn’t wake until 15:45.
Anyway, I’m babbling on a bit there, I managed a couple of races at the end of the afternoon card and turned in a profit of £1.40 with a 2 different strategies.